Mexico | Energy Crisis and Security Mark the 2026 World Cup, Risks for Spanish Capital

[CONTEXT]

In June 2026, Mexico faces a critical situation marked by the convergence of a global energy crisis and an escalation of internal security tensions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a direct consequence of the armed conflict between the United States and Iran, has paralyzed the transit of 20% of the world’s oil and 25% of the fertilizer trade. This blockade has pushed the price of Brent crude above 110 dollars, with projections reaching 150 dollars if the paralysis persists.

Simultaneously, the country inaugurates the 2026 World Cup at the Estadio Azteca under a climate of maximum social pressure. The government of President Claudia Sheinbaum is dealing with labor protests and security compromised by cartel violence. Added to this is the decision by the Donald Trump administration to designate major Mexican criminal organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO). This measure, confirmed by the State Department, grants Washington tools to freeze assets and sanction any entity that maintains indirect links with these groups, exponentially raising regulatory risk.

[CHOISEUL ANALYSIS]

The current scenario transforms Mexico into the epicenter of a geopolitical readjustment that directly affects Spain’s strategic interests. The Hormuz crisis highlights Mexico’s structural vulnerability: despite being an oil producer, its dependence on importing gasoline and natural gas from the United States links its internal stability to international refined product prices. For Spanish companies in the energy sector, this imbalance in the hydrocarbon trade balance creates operational volatility that is difficult to mitigate through traditional hedging.

The most disruptive factor for the Spanish investor, however, is not the price of crude oil, but the tightening of financial compliance. The designation of cartels as terrorist groups by OFAC (U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control) places the subsidiaries of Spanish banks before an unprecedented regulatory challenge. Any failure in due diligence regarding clients or suppliers with diffuse links to organized crime could result in million-dollar fines or exclusion from U.S.-controlled payment systems.

Nevertheless, the crisis also accelerates the regionalization of supplies. The paralysis of Asian routes reinforces the appeal of nearshoring in the Cali-Baja corridor. This trend represents a window of opportunity for Spanish infrastructure managers and logistics companies that can position themselves in the reconfiguration of the USMCA (TMEC), prioritizing resilience over cost. Mexico is torn between productive stagnation derived from energy inflation and its consolidation as the alternative logistics hub to Asia for the North American market.

[IMPACT ON SPANISH COMPANIES]

• Banking and Finance: BBVA and Santander must apply extreme compliance audits to avoid sanctions for “material support” to entities linked to groups designated as terrorists by the U.S.
• Energy and Refining: Repsol and Naturgy face high margin volatility due to the rising cost of imported natural gas and drastic fluctuations in the price of Brent.
• Logistics and Transport: Inditex and other major exporters will see increased operational costs due to the rise in diesel and the higher cost of transport insurance on critical routes.
• Tourism and Insurance: Hotel chains present in the country face reputational risks and a possible drop in bookings if insecurity during the World Cup affects international perception.
• Agribusiness: The rise in fertilizer prices (derived from the closure of Hormuz) reduces the margins of Spanish companies with interests in Mexican agricultural production.

[EVENTS TO WATCH]

• June 2026 — Development of the FIFA World Cup: The success or failure of the security operation in Mexico City will define the country risk in the short term.
• June 21, 2026 — Second round of elections in Colombia: The result will impact the regional strategy to fight organized crime and the stability of the Andean bloc.
• Third quarter of 2026 — Review of USMCA rules of origin: Key date to determine the level of productive integration required from Spanish subsidiaries in Mexico.