The ECB raises rates over Iran

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has increased interest rates by 25 basis points in response to inflationary pressure linked to the military conflict in Iran.

September 17, 2026  |  3 min read

The partial blockade and insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping the price of a barrel of Brent crude above 98 dollars, altering price stability forecasts in the eurozone for the final quarter of the year.

The escalation of military tension in the region has forced logistics operators to divert trade routes, prolonging delivery times and raising the costs of basic industrial inputs. Consumer Price Indices (CPI) of member states already reflect the direct impact of energy. The Frankfurt-based monetary authority justifies this adjustment as a necessary measure to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored in the face of sustained increases in fuel and natural gas prices.

Readjustment of margins and financial costs

The tightening of monetary policy in an environment of high energy prices strains the income statements of large Spanish companies, especially those with high energy intensity. Crude oil remaining near 100 dollars, coupled with the increase in financing costs, reduces the operating margins of companies that cannot fully pass these increases on to the final consumer. Instability in the Strait of Hormuz not only affects oil supply but also increases sea freight rates and risk premiums in international transport insurance.

For strategy and risk management departments, the current scenario demands an immediate review of interest rate and raw material hedges. The window for cheap financing is closing while the conflict in the Middle East maintains volatility in commodity markets. This situation accelerates the need for energy diversification to maintain competitiveness. The main risk lies in a contraction of domestic demand if core inflation begins to reflect the impact of crude oil structurally, affecting household consumption and productive investment in Spain.

Impact on external competitiveness

The appreciation of the euro resulting from higher rates hinders the competitiveness of Spanish exports outside the eurozone, especially in price-sensitive markets such as Asia or Latin America. Corporations must monitor the solvency of their suppliers in the Gulf region, as the risk of supply disruptions and contract termination due to force majeure increases with the prolongation of the Iranian military crisis.