CRUDE OIL REACHES 115 DOLLARS

Tensions in the Middle East following attacks on Saudi Aramco infrastructure send the geopolitical risk premium soaring.

October 29, 2026  |  3 min read

The price of Brent crude has surpassed the 115-dollar barrier following a series of drone and missile attacks against critical Saudi Aramco infrastructure. The raids, claimed by Houthi militias, have affected processing centers and export terminals in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. The Saudi Ministry of Energy has confirmed structural damage that has forced the temporary suspension of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of production, representing nearly 1.5% of global supply.

This supply disruption occurs in a market characterized by minimal inventories and limited spare capacity within OPEC+. Uncertainty regarding the duration of repairs and the security of shipping routes in the Red Sea has spiked the geopolitical risk premium. Futures markets reflect high volatility, while major European importers seek immediate cargo alternatives to secure their strategic reserves ahead of the winter period.

Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are analyzing the impact of this surge on inflation expectations. Rising energy costs threaten to disrupt the price stabilization path achieved in previous quarters. Financial markets anticipate that this scenario will force monetary regulators to maintain high interest rates for longer than expected, delaying the easing policies projected for the end of the year.

Inflationary Threat and Acceleration of the Energy Transition

The return of oil to triple digits alters the strategic horizon for Spanish companies with high energy dependence, especially in the transport, chemical, and heavy manufacturing sectors. The immediate risk lies in the narrowing of operating margins. The difficulty of fully passing on the rise in raw materials to the final price, in a context of moderate domestic consumption, demands a review of cost structures. For Ibex 35 companies with assets in the Middle East, the increase in regional instability forces the strengthening of business continuity plans and insurance coverage for physical infrastructure.

This escalation breaks the energy normalization trend and consolidates a scenario of structural volatility. For Spain, whose energy bill weighs down the trade balance, crude oil remaining above 110 dollars will deteriorate the current account balance and private investment capacity. However, this crisis opens a window of opportunity for renewable energy subsidiaries. The economic viability of green hydrogen projects and large-scale storage is strengthened, positioning decarbonization not only as an environmental goal but as a national security and long-term competitiveness priority.

From a financial perspective, pressure on the ECB reduces the room for maneuver for potential rate cuts in the short term. Spanish exporting companies face a double challenge: persistent financing costs and potential exchange rate volatility against currencies of net importing emerging markets. Financial management must prioritize hedging strategies for both fuel and interest rates to mitigate the impact of an inflationary cycle that could extend over the coming quarters.