El Niño: An 11 Trillion Impact

Within the framework of the COP31 climate summit held in Antalya, a technical report from international financial organizations estimates that the El Niño weather phenomenon will generate record cumulative losses in the global economy.

November 12, 2026  |  3 min read

As part of the COP31 climate summit held in Antalya, a technical report by international financial organizations estimates that the El Niño meteorological phenomenon will generate cumulative losses worth 11 trillion dollars in the global economy over the next decade. The study indicates that the recurrence and intensity of this climate pattern have exceeded previous projections, directly affecting primary sector productivity and the stability of energy infrastructures.

The document presented in Turkey details that ocean thermal volatility causes prolonged droughts in Southeast Asia and Australia, while triggering critical flooding on the Pacific coast of the Americas. These disruptions not only destroy physical capital but also systemically interrupt the supply chains of essential raw materials, increasing inflationary pressure in international food and energy markets.

Reconfiguration of Operational and Financial Risks

The magnitude of the figure presented in Antalya forces Spanish companies with interests in Ibero-America and the Mediterranean basin to review their contingency plans and asset valuation models. The exposure of major IBEX 35 companies to sectors such as hydroelectric power and agribusiness in countries like Brazil, Chile, or Peru turns this climate warning into a critical financial risk factor. The reduced availability of water resources for electricity generation in these regions forces the use of more expensive thermal sources, which strains the operating margins of Spanish energy subsidiaries and raises costs for the final consumer.

This scenario confirms the breakdown of traditional seasonality and demands an acceleration in investment in resilient infrastructures. For the banking and insurance sector, the 11 trillion dollar impact translates into a potential increase in the delinquency rate in agricultural portfolios and the need to adjust premiums for extreme weather events. Those organizations that manage to integrate these forecasting models into their strategic decision-making will gain a competitive advantage in managing volatility.

On the other hand, the projected crisis opens windows of opportunity for Spanish engineering and technology firms specialized in water management and energy efficiency. Demand for desalination solutions, smart irrigation systems, and renewable matrix diversification will grow in the markets most affected by El Niño. The ability to export climate adaptation solutions will be a determining factor in offsetting operational disruption risks in emerging markets.