Critical minerals: a new global geopolitical fracture

The World Economic Forum (WEF) has published its annual global risks report, identifying China’s hegemony in the critical minerals supply chain as the primary vulnerability for economic stability leading up to 2027.

September 26, 2026  |  2 min read

The document highlights that the concentration of extraction and, especially, the refining of lithium and nickel in Chinese hands provides Beijing with unprecedented geopolitical leverage over Western economies.

Trade flows for these raw materials, essential for the manufacturing of batteries and renewable energy components, are facing increasing fragmentation. The report points out that competition for access to these resources has ceased to be a purely commercial matter, becoming instead a pillar of national security for major powers. Price volatility and potential export restrictions are solidifying as foreign policy tools that directly impact industrial costs in the European Union and the United States.

Supply reconfiguration and strategic autonomy

Current dependency on critical minerals is accelerating the transition from an energy risk model based on hydrocarbons to one defined by technology and materials. For Spanish companies with interests in the energy sector and electric mobility, this trend consolidates a scenario of “green protectionism.” Although EU regulations seek to mitigate this vulnerability, the deployment of domestic processing infrastructure requires timelines that clash with the urgency of the 2027 horizon set by the WEF.

This situation opens a window of strategic opportunity for companies specializing in the circular economy and metal recycling—sectors where the Spanish industrial fabric possesses competitive capabilities. The reconfiguration of value chains will favor those actors that manage to diversify their supply sources outside of Beijing’s sphere of influence, prioritizing nearshoring agreements or alliances with mining countries in Latin America that operate under Western governance standards.

The risk of physical scarcity or administrative blockades on Chinese exports poses a structural increase in capital expenditure (CAPEX) for decarbonization projects. The contingency plans of major Spanish listed companies must integrate scenarios of supply disruptions in nickel and lithium, evaluating the impact of cross-tariffs and the potential implementation of local content quotas in destination markets. Security of supply will prevail over cost efficiency in the short and medium term.