LATAM | Export boom and investment deficit — Opportunity for Spanish capital

During the first half of 2026, exports from Latin America and the Caribbean recorded a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, a dynamism driven primarily by the boom in raw materials and the growing demand for critical components for Artificial Intelligence infrastructure.

November 06, 2026  |  4 min read

This export surge, however, coexists with a structural paradox: the region continues to experience a significant deficit in attracting foreign direct investment compared to previous expansionary cycles. According to the latest reports from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the regional export basket maintains a high concentration in low-technology goods, representing 62% of the total, evidencing a persistent difficulty in scaling toward higher value-added segments.

The asymmetry between trade volume and quality productive investment is manifested with particular clarity on the technological level. While global demand for data centers projects annual growth rates near 20%, the region barely attracts 1.12% of global investment in Artificial Intelligence. This capital gap occurs at a time when the energy transition and digital supply security have placed the region’s lithium and copper reserves, which reach 48% and 37% of global stocks respectively, at the epicenter of contemporary geoeconomic gravitation.

The export decoupling as an industrial transformation imperative

The current situation reveals that the abundance of natural resources and a power generation matrix significantly cleaner than the world average—64.3% of its electricity comes from renewable sources—do not by themselves guarantee resilient economic development. It is evident that the lack of intraregional trade integration, stagnant at a meager 14% compared to 67% in the European Union, limits the ability of Latin American economies to establish scale markets that are attractive for complex technological investment. Nonetheless, this scenario of fragmentation and dependence on primary products opens a strategic window of opportunity for those international actors capable of leading the sophistication of global value chains.

For Spain, whose business presence in Ibero-America possesses undeniable historical and sectoral depth, this imbalance constitutes an entry vector toward open strategic autonomy projects. The convergence between the need for logistical infrastructure and the deployment of digital networks allows Spanish corporations to position themselves as preferred partners in the transfer of technology and knowledge. The maturity of the transatlantic relationship, reinforced by the architecture of the renewed trade agreements with Chile and Mexico, helps mitigate regulatory volatility risks and offers a framework of legal security superior to that of other global competitors in the region.

Investment vectors and regulatory sovereignty in the Ibero-American space

The renewable energy sector is consolidating as the primary attraction pole for Spanish capital. The comparative advantage provided by a decarbonized power grid facilitates the development of energy-intensive industries and green hydrogen projects, where the engineering and operational experience of Spanish firms are proven as a differential value. This clean energy base is, to a large extent, the necessary support for the expansion of digital infrastructure, allowing the region to aspire to become a data center hub for the global market, a trend that investors should monitor with caution but with ambition.

In the field of strategic mining, the position of Chile and Peru offers a platform for capital goods and mining services companies to diversify their portfolios. The demand for copper and lithium, catalyzed by the electrification of transport and the development of smart energy networks, requires a modernization of extractive processes toward sustainability standards that Spanish companies are in a position to provide. Evidence suggests that control of the supply chain of these minerals will be a determining factor in the technological sovereignty of the coming decades.

Likewise, the modernization of physical infrastructure represents a critical investment niche. It is estimated that the region requires an annual investment of 3.1% of its gross domestic product until 2030 to close its connectivity gap. For Spanish construction and infrastructure management companies, this investment commitment, usually backed by multilateral organizations such as the Inter-American Development Bank or CAF, offers a horizon of long-term projects that integrate both traditional civil works and the incorporation of smart digital solutions.

Finally, the ratification and full implementation of trade frameworks between the European Union and Mercosur, added to the deployment of funds linked to the Global Gateway initiative, provides an environment of transparency and predictability. This regulatory umbrella is essential for Spanish capital to assume a leading role in the sophistication of Latin American exports, transforming the current advantage in raw materials into a technology- and manufacturing-based competitive advantage. It should be considered that the success of this integration will depend on the capacity to align productive development policies with the formation of specialized human capital.

Key milestones for regional economic outlook

• November 2026 — Monitoring volatility in the commodities market: Conflicts in the Middle East could alter trade flows and energy prices, affecting the regional balance of payments.
• December 2026 — Operational implementation of the Choose Chile agenda: Start of the incentive phase for attracting investment in high-value-added sectors and capturing global talent.
• First quarter of 2027 — Progress on Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor: Evaluation of logistics and advanced manufacturing opportunities in the new industrial hubs of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.