USA | Fiscal Cliff and Geopolitical Tension — Financial Risk in LATAM

Public debt sustainability in the United States has entered a phase of structural vulnerability which, combined with the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House, is reconfiguring the risk map in Latin America.

August 22, 2026  |  3 min read

The persistent fiscal deficit in Washington keeps interest rates at elevated levels, strengthening the dollar as a safe-haven asset and drastically increasing debt service costs for countries in the region. This situation is exacerbated by instability in the Strait of Hormuz, where threats from the U.S. administration against Oman due to its rapprochement with Iran are pushing global energy inflation upward.

In this scenario, key markets for Spanish investment such as Mexico and Colombia face a double pressure: rising financial costs and acute exchange rate volatility. While U.S. capital retreats toward higher-yielding domestic assets, powers like China are gaining ground through assistance diplomacy and infrastructure financing, as evidenced by the recent delivery of 77 tons of humanitarian aid to Colombia following the August earthquake. For Spanish subsidiaries, the combination of high rates, weak local currencies, and institutional tensions—such as the conflict between the PRI and the INE in Mexico—creates a highly complex operating environment.

Institutional Fragility and the Advance of Alternative Capital

The current outlook does not reflect a cycle of transitory volatility, but rather a shift in the balance of power and financing in the region. The United States’ inability to stabilize its fiscal front is triggering a capital flight effect in emerging markets. This “flight to quality” especially penalizes economies with internal institutional noise. In Mexico, the PRI’s complaint to the U.S. Department of State against INE councilors introduces a factor of legal insecurity that raises the risk premium. These types of conflicts weaken international investor confidence at a time when the cost of consumer credit is already weighing down sectors like tourism and commerce.

Faced with the vacuum of U.S. financial leadership, China is executing a “tipping point” strategy. By mobilizing resources immediately in crisis situations—such as logistic and energy support following the earthquake in Valle del Cauca—Beijing not only offers assistance but also establishes the groundwork for greater penetration into long-term infrastructure contracts. For Spanish companies, this means competing in an environment where traditional dollar-denominated financing becomes more expensive, while Asian capital offers conditions that could displace European players in strategic sectors such as construction and energy.

Operational resilience is also tested by exogenous factors. The paralysis of critical infrastructure, as seen with the Los Libertadores Pass in Chile after historic snowfalls, exemplifies how a lack of efficient protocols and disinvestment can cut off one-third of annual operations in key sectors. In a context of fiscal adjustment, regional governments tend to cut maintenance and public works, increasing the risk of business interruption for Spanish concessionaires.

Vulnerability of Spanish Capital in Strategic Sectors

• Banking and Finance: BBVA and Santander face higher wholesale funding costs and an increasing risk of delinquency in their loan portfolios in Mexico and Colombia.
• Energy: Volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and threats from Trump drive up operating costs and complicate margin planning for Repsol and Naturgy.
• Infrastructure and Construction: The cut in public tenders due to fiscal adjustments in the region threatens the backlog of companies such as ACS, Ferrovial, or Sacyr.
• Tourism: Hotel groups (Meliá, NH) perceive a contraction in the flow of local travelers due to consumer credit restrictions.
• Logistics: Instability in global shipping routes and the rising cost of hydrocarbons increase distribution costs for Spanish subsidiaries.

Monitoring Milestones for Corporate Strategy

• September 2026 — Execution of Chinese aid in Colombia: Monitoring the conditionality of new reconstruction funds and their impact on public works tenders.
• October 2026 — Resolution of the INE-PRI conflict in Mexico: Key for evaluating the stability of electoral institutions and its impact on sovereign credit ratings.
• November 2026 — Evolution of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz: U.S. retaliation against Oman will determine if crude oil prices enter a structural inflationary spiral.
• December 2026 — Review of foreign exchange hedging: A critical moment for corporate treasuries to adjust their exposure to the Mexican and Colombian pesos at the end of the fiscal year.