{"id":147121,"date":"2026-10-05T16:00:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T14:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/instituto.choiseul.es\/latam-strong-dollar-spanish-risk\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T16:00:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T14:00:18","slug":"latam-strong-dollar-spanish-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/instituto.choiseul.es\/en\/latam-strong-dollar-spanish-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"LatAm | Strong dollar \u2014 Spanish risk"},"content":{"rendered":"
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LatAm | Strong Dollar \u2014 Spanish Risk<\/h1>\n

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The current geoeconomic situation is subject to a phase of exchange rate volatility marked by the persistent strength of the US dollar against major Latin American currencies.<\/p>\n

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October 02, 2026  |  4 min read<\/p>\n

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In this scenario, the International Monetary Fund has projected a moderate global growth of 3.0% for the 2026 fiscal year, a figure that reflects the persistence of restrictive financial conditions and a reconfiguration of capital flows toward safe-haven assets in the face of regulatory and trade uncertainty in advanced economies. This risk-aversion environment has been intensified by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, factors that consolidate the greenback’s position as the predominant reserve asset.<\/p>\n

The accelerated depreciation of benchmark currencies such as the Mexican peso, the Brazilian real, the Chilean peso, and the Colombian peso is largely a response to the expectation of expansive tariff and fiscal policies in the United States, which has generated a notable increase in external financing costs in the region. This phenomenon not only affects the payment capacity of sovereign issuers but also shifts additional inflationary pressure through the rising cost of imports. Consequently, Latin American central banks are forced to consider a tightening of their monetary policies to mitigate capital flight, which conditions internal economic dynamism and projections for foreign direct investment profitability.<\/p>\n

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Persistence of Asymmetries and Regulatory Sovereignty<\/h2>\n

The current geoeconomic shift toward a robust dollar represents a turning point that tests the strategic autonomy of Latin American economies and the resilience of the balance sheets of Spanish multinationals. The relevance of this phenomenon resides in its capacity to alter cost structures and income predictability in markets that are fundamental to the Spanish external sector. This is not an ordinary cyclical oscillation; rather, an underlying trend is evidenced, linked to the divergence of monetary policies and the fragmentation of global trade, where the dollar acts as a transmission mechanism for US political uncertainty toward emerging economies.<\/p>\n

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