Stagflation risk cuts global growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have revised downward their global growth forecast for 2026, setting it at 3.0%.

August 22, 2026  |  2 min read

This adjustment responds to the energy crisis in the Middle East, which has caused a sustained spike in hydrocarbon prices and a contraction of industrial activity on an international scale. Both organizations warn of the materialization of a “stagflationary shock” characterized by the combination of economic stagnation and persistent inflation.

Instability in the Persian Gulf has altered crude oil and natural gas supply flows, raising operating costs in global value chains. This situation keeps core inflation above the targets set by major central banks, restricting the room for maneuver to lower interest rates. While emerging economies show mixed resilience, advanced markets, especially in the eurozone, show signs of structural cooling in the face of rising energy costs and weak domestic demand.

Operational challenges in the face of rising energy costs

The stagflation scenario posed by multilateral organizations directly impacts the cost structure of Spanish companies, especially in energy-intensive, chemical, and transport sectors. The persistence of high energy prices erodes operating margins at a time when external demand, a key driver of the national economy, shows signs of fatigue. For IBEX 35 companies with high exposure to European markets, the cooling of the eurozone forces an upward revision of credit risk provisions and strict control of capital expenditure (CAPEX).

This environment confirms the end of the immediate monetary flexibility cycle. Companies must prepare for a scenario of positive real interest rates for a prolonged period, which increases debt service costs and makes refinancing liabilities under favorable conditions more difficult. However, the energy crisis accelerates the window of opportunity for leading firms in renewable infrastructure and energy efficiency solutions. Spain, thanks to its lower relative dependence on gas from conflict zones and its robust regasification capacity, maintains a competitive advantage in energy costs compared to its partners in Central and Northern Europe.

Geographical diversification toward markets with greater energy autonomy or more robust internal growth dynamics becomes a strategic imperative. The CEO and risk management departments must pivot their efforts toward mitigating commodity price volatility by renegotiating long-term supply contracts. Active inventory management and the optimization of foreign logistics will be critical tools for navigating a 2026 marked by geopolitical uncertainty and the weakness of traditional trading partners.